FANTASY FRIDAY - Chess, not Checkers

By: Shawn Williams

“A sale is made on every call you make.  Either you sell the client some stock or he sells you a reason he can’t.  Either way a sale is made, the only questions is:  Who is going to close?
                                                                                                            -Ben Affleck
                                                                                                             Boiler Room
 
A perfect correlation for trading…players.  [For those who don’t know, Boiler Room is an incredible movie that depicts and dramatizes a day in the life of stock traders; albeit criminal stock traders]. 
 
Trading is a true art form.  It requires finesse, patience, skill, head games, persistence and good management.    Applying the appropriate tactics can result in the construction of a powerhouse.   While everyone enjoys a nice game of checkers, you gotta be playing chess. 
 
This guide is your playbook.  Follow each step carefully and it’ll be “Checkmate” on your opponent.

- Refer to Ben Affleck’s sage advice.  Either you’re going to pull off the blockbuster, or you’re selling a struggling Lamar Jackson for pennies on the dollar.  Worse yet, you get nothing.  Making a trade is no different than selling a product.  Peddle your player(s) and be convicted.  There’s no reason you can’t talk up a James Connor or Chris Carson (both very fantasy relevant, but in contract years, with injury issues).  Play the numbers.  Conner and Carson are 25 and 26 respectively.  Even with short shelf lives, these running backs are still young.  Conner is RB12 with a bye and a 2-point game under his belt (PPR Superflex).  Carson is RB15 despite missing a full game, plus a bye week.  You can make them attractive, even in a dynasty league.  They play for two of the best and most consistent offenses in the NFL. 
 
If you know your stuff and have persistence and stubbornness, your “gift of gab” will ultimately get you to secure, and win, any trade your heart desires.

- Know your roster.  What’s your strengths?  Weaknesses?  If you’re heavy on Backs and missing that WR, that’s your trade.  Try and find the guy or gal that needs your receiver and needs it bad.  Conversely, DO NOT create a bigger weakness in your lineup just for the sake of trading.  Don’t weaken a thin group just because the rest of your league is trading, and you want in on the action.

- Impulse buying in real life tends to lead to guilt and remorse.  The same applies to trades.

- Find the soft spot in your league.  Who’s playing “just for the fun of it”?  There is always one.  He or she is the 12th wheel at your party.  They want attention, and they’re likely to let you take “slight” advantage in a trade.

- Buy low, sell high.  This season I managed to trade Zach Ertz for Tee Higgins.  This trade happened prior to Higgins “blowing up”, right before Week 5.  Zach, for all the success he’s had, is on the decline (and sharing targets with Dallas Goedert; when healthy).  Tee Higgins is a 21-year-old rookie and has Joey Burrow slinging the rock.
 
DK Metcalf was fantasy gold this year.I drafted him in Rd. 4.We all know the year he’s having.You can trade him for just about any package you want now.

Chris Godwin was WR2 last year.This season he’s…injured.He also has a lot of targets to compete with.That’s no excuse for accepting less value for him (in Dynasty formats).He’s immensely talented and 23 years old.Let his value balance out.Be patient.

- Know the schedule.  Keenan Allen’s situation looks pretty decent come FF playoff time.  He ends with the Raiders and Broncos (middle of the road for points allowed) and the Chiefs (shootout?).  Allen is a target machine and in a good spot for the most critical part of the fantasy football season.  Go get him!  You may even be able to capitalize on his age.  Dynasty format tankers favor youth and draft picks.

- Heavy trade packages are nice, and they create big noise in the group chat, but the value really comes in breaking down your deals to small sales.  Often times, moving one Bishop will result in a bigger return as opposed to giving up a couple Rooks and a Knight, for 3 pawns and a Queen.
 
Which trade is more attractive?

1. Deandre Swift/2022 1st round pick for Chris Godwin
2. Deandre Swift/Tee Higgins/1st round pick for Chris Godwin/David Montgomery

 
Giving Swift (who is in a tough situation in Detroit) and a future pick for last years WR2 (whose value will rebound and can be resold at a higher value) seems much better than giving Swift and Higgins for Godwin and Montgomery (who, for all his tough running, is suffering greatly in Chicago).
 
Deal “A” was completed after heavy negotiations around deal “B”.  The deal was contemplated and discussed for so long that the trade partner didn’t want to go home empty handed on both players.

- Don’t be too big of a ‘homer”.  I overpaid to get Tua.  I, like all of you (I think), are all-in on the “Chosen One”.  I fault none of you for slight over-payments on the “Left Arm of God”.  Go get your guy.  Once you do, brag and pump him up to the rest of the league.  Declare him untouchable.  People may laugh and make you feel dumb, but they also may start wanting what they can’t have.  Do not pass on the deal of a lifetime because you can’t give up the Dolphins franchise savior.  When you realize what a fool you’d be to decline, put a cherry on top.  It’ll make it all worth it.
 
Example:
I was made fun of for two weeks, by one person, for exactly the reason I just described.To be funny he started throwing me offers to see if he could obtain the unattainable.The deals ultimately couldn’t move the needle for me.I guess for him, it was challenge accepted.
 
I got the offer I couldn’t say no to.Ronald Jones/Travis Fulgham/Gardner Minshew/2 1st round picks/1 2nd round pick for 1 Tua Tagovailoa.I love Tua, but man does that change a roster.
 
I knew I had my trade partner when he started daring me to accept.To make it fun I had him swap out Ronald Jones for James Connor.There’s my cherry, and I haven’t looked back.
 
Dolphins @ Cardinals Player Preview
 
QB Tua Tagovailoa:
 
Tua struggled in his debut.  He was handcuffed to Chan’s training wheels and faced against a super stout Rams defense.  His team also had a sizeable lead for most of the game, causing the offense to stay conservative.  This week he faces a more relaxed situation and could find himself in his first NFL shoot out.  The Cardinals are middle of the pack in yards allowed and 13th overall in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Arizona, with a high-octane offense of their own, will likely require Tua to be more aggressive and assertive in the passing game (but I guess that really depends on the Dolphins’ high-ranking defense).  Without more data, Tua really can’t project as much more than a QB2 with upside.
 
RB Jordan Howard/Patrick Laird
 
I have absolutely nothing to back this up, however I think Howard has a big game.  Jordan Howard has too much talent to completely fade away into oblivion.  I also think he’s had enough time to stew, and get focused, that Sunday could very well be all redemption.  Chan Gailey could also decide to have Patrick Laird be the featured back, but something tells me this game has Jordan Howard written all over it.  Start him as RB2, high upside flex (Don’t @ me).  By the way, the cardinals allow the 8th most rushing yards per game.

WR DeVante Parker/Preston Williams

Until further notice, Preston Williams needs to ride your bench.  He is in WR jail until he has earned his way out.  Williams has been plagued by drops again this year and doesn’t see a ton of targets come his way.  This could also be the game that all changes.  Funny things happen mid-season when a radically different quarterback takes over.
 
Parker will likely stay considered a WR3 until his season gets rolling a bit more.  He’s not struggling in any area, but the ball is not coming his way nearly enough to be considered a consistent option.  He has been very touchdown dependent much of the year and draws elite cornerback Patrick Peterson this week.
 
TE Mike Gesicki
 
Gesicki is likely the most frustrating player in (or out) of your lineup.  His production is near impossible to predict.  Some weeks Chan Gailey loves him, and too often he’s good for just a few targets.  Two games ago he put up a big ZERO and last week was held to 1 catch for 8 yards.  Mike is a great red-zone target, but Adam Shaheen and Durham Smythe have proven to steal those looks.  I gotta say sit him until things change.
 
D/ST
 
Welp!  If there was ever a week to start Miami’s D/ST last week was that week.  I wouldn’t expect a major repeat performance, however Miami has been creating turnovers and sacks on a weekly basis.  This week will certainly be challenge as Miami faces the highly mobile Kyler Murray.  Miami’s kryptonite has long been the mobile quarterback, and they already struggle against the run.  Byron Jones, Xavien Howard and Co. will have a tough enough time staying on DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk.  This may not be the week to play this D/ST.

Please welcome Shawn Williams to PhinManiacs and please check him out on Twitter @swilliams3205