Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: Week 1 News Notes and Nuggets

By: Jason Sarney

It's almost here! Week 1 is upon us! The Miami Dolphins are 29-25-1 all-time in season openers & 18-16-1 when opening the season on the road. Miami lost to New England in last year's opener but won at Hard Rock in December.

Miami holds the all-time series lead 57-54, which includes 3 playoff matchups, and here are some other news, notes, and nuggets.

-(As of Sept. 6, 2021) via Miami website; the roster breakdown:

23 OFF players
26 DEF players
3 ST players

-23 players were drafted by the Dolphins- 4 UDFAs

-17 TOTAL full-time Dolphins were not drafted in NFL

-46 on the main roster are UNDER 28 years old

-50 are 30 or younger.

-Former Patriots, now Dolphins include, from Front office to the sidelines, to the field - Brian Flores, Josh Boyer George Godsey, Mike Judge, Chris Grier, Marvin Allen, Eric Rowe, Justin Coleman, Jason McCourty, Elandon Roberts Adam Butler, and Jacoby Brissett.

-In The last 5 meetings, Miami has won 3 and lost 2 games against New England.

-Miami's success last year had lots to do w/ their starts to games, unlike recent years past. Miami's 1st-quarter scoring defense was 4th in the NFL at 3.4 points allowed. The Defense's 8 takeaways were 4in the 1st quarter as well. They had a +48 1st quarter scoring differential. 2nd in NFL.
 
-The average Dolphins 1st quarter last season was Miami 6.4 and their opponents 3.4 TD to FGs. This is a good thing.

-Miami had a terrific team in 2002. Last year's team outscored its opponents by a 404-338 margin. The +66 point differential was the best by a Dolphins team since that 2002 season, when Miami was +77 on the season, and had Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas Pat, Sam and Ricky Williams.

-Just a reminder - Tua, at 6-3 last season as a rookie ADDS to his arsenal - Will Fuller, Jaylen Waddle, and Albert Wilson. With a sprinkle of Hunter Long as a new target as well.

-In just 7 games played in 2018, Albert Wilson totaled 391 receiving yards & 4 TDS. So - that's about an average of 55 yds per game. Let's say he plays 14 games in 2021 at that pace. That's around 782 yards, & a TD pace would equate to about 8.
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-The name of the game is keeping your offense on the field and your defense off. Miami’s 3rd-down defense in 2021 was the best in the NFL, limiting opponents to just a 31.2 conversion rate. That is the 2nd-best mark in Miami history and the best was back in 1999, at 28.8 percent

-The Dolphins LB leaders of Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Ginkel are enhanced by free agents Duke Riley and Brennan Scarlett and rookie Jaelan Phillips. This LB room gets over-looked on the overall defense. Don't overlook them this season.

-Miami had three games in 2020 in which they did not allow an opponent TD. One game was their win against New England Week 15 at home. They held the Patriots to 12 points on all FGs in a 22-12 win. Mac Jones debuts as a NFL QB against an elite defense in a few days.

-Jason Sanders led the NFL with 20 field goals made from 40+ and was 2nd in the NFL with 8 FGs of 50+ yards. He has made 5 game winnings kicks.

-The Miami Depth Chart has Preston Williams behind DeVante Parker as WR1. Jaylen Waddle & Albert Wilson as WR2. Then Jakeem Grant & Mack Hollins as WR3 as per chart. Mind you; Preston was listed 4th or 5th on Depth in 2019, and started the 1st series, & was targeted.
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-As of September 6th, as per Miami Media Guide The Miami Offensive Line Depth Chart:
LT Austin Jackson - Greg Little
LG Solomon Kindley - Robert Jones
C Michael Dieter - Greg Mancz
RG Robert Hunt - Robert Jones
RT Jesse Davis - Liam Eichenberg
 
-In my opinion the most important defense of player on the field for the Miami Dolphins on Sunday will be Eric Rowe. A pair of talented TEs in Smith and Henry.

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Top 2020 teams in Against the Spread Record:

MIA - 68.8&
BUF - 63.2%
BAL - 61.1%
GB - 61.1%
TB 0 60%

WORST ATS in 2020

DAL - 31.2%
MIN - 37.5%
NYJ - 37.5%
PHI - 37.5%
HOU - 37.5%

-56.2% of Miami's games last season were UNDER score totals.

-For all the OVER bettors:

TOP 10 TEAMS in 2020 with OVER score outcomes combined with their opponents:
LV - 80% of games went OVER
TEN - 75%
MIN - 68%
BUF - 66.7%
DET - 62.5%
GB - 61%
IND - 58.8%
DAL - 56.2%
LAC - 56.2%
​CLE - 55.6%.

-Preston Williams is +750 to score a TD on Sunday He scored Week 1 as a Rookie. +750 25 gets you 212 Will Fuller out.

-Myles Gaskin is at 67.5 combined rushing and receiving yards and that is an OVER to slam the farm on. Last year in games that he played in he averaged 97 yards from scrimmage. This is a gimme 42 rushing 32 receiving That’s my guesstimate.

--Jerome Baker is OVER 4.5 tackles against NE and pays +125. His career, in 6 NE games, he has 60 total tackles. That’s an average of 10 a game. If he gets HALF this average against NE.... You win.

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