PHINMANIACS.COM
Menu

South Florida's Free Agent Forecast - Targeting the Right Wide Receiver

2/26/2021

1 Comment

 
By: Jason Sarney
There are only days to go before the 2021 NFL season officially opens and free agency frenzy kicks off. The Miami Dolphins will likely be prime players, and will most assuredly be linked to any rumored available player under the Sun.

It is in their nature, and totally acceptable, for Miami Dolphins Fans to be excited about the prospects of new players joining their team; it’s clearly among the risers in the NFL. For the first time in a long time, there is a zero-negative approach for free agents playing football in South Florida, unless they’re averse to warm weather beaches, tax free income, and being led by one of the brightest young coaches in the league in Brian Flores. 

There are marquee names available at wide receiver, arguably the primary offensive position of need for the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa; these same names are circulating on social media and Dolphins Nation. We will take a deep dive into the top targets available to general manager Chris Grier once the signing period begins. 

I’ll be giving a grade of likelihood to each name, based on a few parameters: Potential contract amount, personality fit for the team, and scheme fit for the offense.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: He is extremely talented and remarkably young for a player heading into his fifth NFL season. He will turn 25 right before Thanksgiving, so this kid at heart will be heading into the 2021 season with a huge payday.

While JuJu is the type of person who is a brand in and of himself, his production has curiously declined in a number of areas since he exploded on the scene as a big play, big yard receiver. 

Before going into statistical evidence illustrating a decline on paper, what’s notable is that Ben Roethlisberger was not at the helm for much of Smith-Schuster’s Steeler career. This very well could be a factor in his yearly decline in terms of yards per target.

Picture
His shortened routes could factor into his potential as a Miami slot machine, but for a contract in which he would expect, mixed with a “diva-receiver” mentality, I am not confident in him becoming a Dolphin. He will likely be among the top two salaries in free agent receivers, and with Miami having the ability to draft a wide-out at any point in the first round of the upcoming draft, I think an economical play is in the cards for the Dolphins in the FA market. 

"He's still just 24 years old, he had 97 catches last year, is tough as nails, and would inject a bolt of energy and enthusiasm into a franchise that desperately needs it."

- @PSchrags on why the perfect fit for JuJu Smith-Schuster (@TeamJuJu) is...the @nyjets. pic.twitter.com/i66BTkTa3v

— GMFB (@gmfb) February 26, 2021
Allen Robinson: The Chicago Bear receiver could be a victim of a franchise tag situation, and is perhaps the most talented of this year's free agent class at the position. He could very well demand the other of the top two salaries in this market; that combined with the franchise tag potential diminishes the chance he could become a Dolphin.

However, having said that, if the Dolphins do decide to splurge or even decide a potential “tag and trade” with the Bears, (much like the Dolphins did with the Browns and Jarvis Landry), it would not shock me if a deal is made.

Robinson's stats, while inconsistent at first glance, are not a fair judgement of his ability. As everyone knows, lack of quality quarterback play has hurt his catch percentage as well as his overall money-making statistics.

Sure, he only had one double digit touchdown year (14 in 2015), and only hit a high of seven in his other six seasons. Pairing him with a skilled quarterback, specifically one who has the keen ability to hit a receiver quickly and in stride, is the thought process behind potentially acquiring Robinson.

Robinson is coming off a career-high year in receptions with 102, as well as his best full-season catch percentage at 67.5%. To put this into perspective, as a Jaguar he reeled in 52.6% of QB targets, and as a Bear that percentage spiked to 63.9. Imagine what would happen with an accurate quarterback.

Lowest drop % by WRs in 2020:
⭐ Davante Adams: 0.9%
⭐ DeAndre Hopkins: 0.9%
⭐ Allen Robinson: 1.0%
⭐ Cole Beasley: 1.2% pic.twitter.com/hCYwAmrR3h

— PFF (@PFF) February 23, 2021
Chris Godwin: Coming off a Super Bowl run with Tampa, will Godwin cash in elsewhere, or stick to being a member of Brady’s Bunch? That’s a difficult question to answer, but Godwin will get paid, and he rounds out who I believe will be the top three earners in the 2021 WR free agent market.

A preeminent slot-man, Godwin has spiked his catch percentage each of his four seasons:
Picture
He’s another “fit” for Tua and Miami, but are they a fit for Godwin? There’s a potential recruiter in former Penn State teammate, Mike Gesicki, who would love to get his guy back in the same huddle. This, of course just a fun speculation, but imagine the reunion.

Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin on possible franchise tag: "If that's what keeps me here, then that's what it is. And I'll play on it and go back to war with my guys."https://t.co/32a4xYY8g5 pic.twitter.com/0BYd3Z2cPf

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) February 26, 2021
Curtis Samuel: In the last few off-seasons the Dolphins front office has surprised many in all areas of team maintenance. Aside from the Tua selection, not many saw the moves in the 2020 Draft as well as in free agency a month prior.

In a similar mindset, the Fins have deviated from the “popular move.” Last season, nobody saw the Byron Jones signing coming. Mix that with a slew of unproven or under-appreciated former top-50 picks in guys like Van Noy, Ogbah and Lawson, and Chris Grier fooled everyone in retrospect.

So don’t be surprised if Miami kicks off free agency with a guy who was one of the top four producing wide-outs per touch last season. Just look at his company:

Most total touches by a WR in 2020:

Stefon Diggs - 128
Curtis Samuel - 118
DeAndre Hopkins - 116
Davante Adams - 115 pic.twitter.com/SuB9ytvC0y

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) February 21, 2021
The Dolphins have also been tipping their hand a tad in the type of player they want. They’re after team oriented, versatile players. Samuel is just that. Able to return kick-offs as well as carry the ball as a rusher (41 carries in 2020), Samuel touched the ball 118 times on offense last season, and ran back 10 kicks. His yards from scrimmage mark of 1,051 gave him a yards per touch of 8.6. With a catch rate of 79.4 in 2020 as well as a creating 39 first downs, he doubled his career output of yards following the reception. 

This healthy spike of 4.2 YAC/R (yards after catch per reception) is a massive buying point for Miami and their need for chain-movers. 

Picture
Click to set custom HTML
This is exactly the metric that should get Fin fans excited, as separation and gaining yards following the reception are massive needs for Miami’s offense if they want to make life easier on Tua.

My favorite stat from Samuel last season was the whopping QB Passer Rating when he was thrown to, which was 109.2. Samuel is a difference maker and could be the key to making Miami’s offense a potent cocktail of confusion. 

Picture
The Bargain Aisle

Marvin Jones, Jr. – Dark horse, yet smart money play. He has been driving around Miami, campaigning to fans for his services, and why not? When healthy, Jones is a yardage machine. Although not entering his prime, (and the contract will indicate that), his first three seasons with Detroit were very productive. Here was his average season line from 2016-2018
Picture
Mind you, that’s three years ago at best, so this production is not expected. Give me 80% of that, with Jones likely entering his final big deal, and this could be a viable secondary outside weapon for Miami.

T.Y. Hilton – Miami-born vet could potentially mentor a young WR corps, on a 1 year deal with an option if he takes a cut to be part of a special run.

The longshot “What?” signing that will indicate a WR at #3 could be likely:
 
Will Fuller
Corey Davis
Nelson Agholor 
Sammy Watkins

This doesn’t necessarily mean a surprise name isn’t signed, as sometimes NFL franchises like to surprise us all by having the audacity to do something unexpected. This is just a reminder that they in fact have the control over franchise moves, and not bloggers. It’s truly part of the fun of the yearly NFL experience, which is exactly what the sport has become. When you think about it, there truly isn’t a month without a significant milestone in terms of team development and building, and player news and progression, leading into a Summer of training camp. And once Summer hits, it’s a few months to the bliss of NFL games every weekend.

Top FA WRs in 2021⬇️
1. Allen Robinson
2. Chris Godwin
3. Juju Smith-Schuster
4. Kenny Golladay
5. Will Fuller
6. T.Y Hilton
7. Marvin Jones Jr.
8. Sammy Watkins
9. AJ Green
10. Larry Fitzgerald #NFL #NFLFreeAgency pic.twitter.com/mNNCDs3uxX

— NFL News (@NflNews1217) February 24, 2021
1 Comment
Jack A. Young Sr
2/26/2021 02:52:10 pm

Fin's will Bring in one of or the best WR great list - Go 2021

Reply



Leave a Reply.

    Latest Dolphins News

    Story Archives

    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014


    RSS Feed

  • Home
  • Miami Dolphins Articles
  • Hussam Patel's Prospect Board
  • PhinManiacs on YouTube
  • PhinManiac Phun
  • About Us
  • PhinManiacs PodCast Network
  • Player Profiles
  • Player Highlight Videos
  • REESE'S SENIOR BOWL PROSPECTS
  • PATCHVIBES
  • Home
  • Miami Dolphins Articles
  • Hussam Patel's Prospect Board
  • PhinManiacs on YouTube
  • PhinManiac Phun
  • About Us
  • PhinManiacs PodCast Network
  • Player Profiles
  • Player Highlight Videos
  • REESE'S SENIOR BOWL PROSPECTS
  • PATCHVIBES