The Miami Dolphins are a Top-10 NFL Team: ***New Writer Editorial***

By: Carter Melrose

YES, the Miami Dolphins are a top 10 team in the NFL. Granted, they are probably EXACTLY number 10. But let's back up: what sparked this declaration in the first place? Why do I feel the need to even say something so grandiose?
 
Tuesday on Fox 1’s TV show ‘The Herd’, Colin Cowherd dubbed the Dolphins as the 10th best team in the NFL. Here is the clip before we continue to my thoughts:

And the comment section was filled with Fin hate:
 
“Dolphins over the Saints is funny,” - 206 likes
 
“Colin: I'm not sure if half of these teams are any good 
 
Also – “Colin: Number 10 Miami, they're good!” - 224 likes
 
Let's discuss:
 
Colin’s Top-10 (with PPG and Opponents PPG added)
 
10. Dolphins 4-3
PPG: 11th (26.9)
Opponents PPG: 1st (18.6)
 
9. Cardinals (hey look, our next opponent) 5-2
PPG: 9th (29)
Opponents PPG: 9th (20.9)
 
8. Packers 5-2
PPG: 3rd (31.3)
Opponents PPG: 20th (26.7)
 
7. Titans 5-2
PPG: 6th (29.7)
Opponents PPG: 18th (26.3)
 
6. Raiders 4-3
PPG: 12th (26.7)
Opponents PPG: 25th (29)
 
5. Ravens 5-2
PPG: 8th (29)
Opponents PPG: 2nd (18.9)
 
4. Seahawks 6-1
PPG: 1st (34.3)
Opponents PPG: 24th (28.4)

3. Steelers 7-0
PPG: 5th (30.1)
Opponents PPG: 6th (20.3)
 
2. Buccaneers 5-2
PPG: 4th (30.9)
Opponents PPG: 7th (20.6)

1.  Chiefs 6-1                                                                                                             
PPG: 2nd (31.6)                                                                                                   
Opponents PPG: 3rd (19)
 
A team that wouldn’t be in my top 10:
 
6. Raiders 4-3
PPG: 12th (26.7)
Opponents PPG: 25th (29)
 
A team that I’d add instead:
 
Colts 5-2
PPG: 10th (28.3)
Opponents PPG: 5th (19.4)

INITIAL THOUGHTS
 
Colin cited three stats to back-up his opinion about the Dolphins:
 
Opponent PPG: 1st (18.6)
 
Opponent 3rd Down Pct: 2nd (33.3%)
 
Opponent Passer Rating: 4th (81.7)
 
But personally I think ‘PPG’ and ‘Opponents PPG’ tell the whole story. It’s that darn Patriots motto: bend, don’t break. Experts and fans alike spend hours dissecting pointless statistics like ‘passing yards per game allowed’ or ‘rushing yards per game’. But you aren’t babies, so I won’t coddle you: aside from fantasy football, yards mean nothing to me.
 
A couple examples:

• Rams out-gained the Dolphins 471 to 145, but we all know how that turned out
• Jameis Winston’s 2019 stat line: 5109 passing yards (led the NFL)
  • All of those yards for a 7-9 record

Once again, score points and bend, do not break makes a playoff team. But what does this tell us in real terms? Let us take a look at the 2019 NFL season for answers. As long as you had both a top-15 offense and defense in the NFL in 2019 you automatically made the playoffs. 
 
(That was of course except for the anomaly that was the 2019 Dallas Cowboys who had an insane point differential of 434 to 321 and were top-10 in both categories - and somehow still missed the playoffs with an 8-8 record.)
 
WHY THE DOLPHINS ARE A TOP-10 TEAM
The Dolphins are easily top-15 in both of these crucial categories I discussed. And hell, I’ll say it: they have the best defense in the NFL; and the statistics back that up.
 
WILL THE DOLPHINS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS?
Teams who have a top-10 unit of any kind in the NFL make the playoffs 72% of the time (between 2017 and 2020). Reality check: the Dolphins have nearly two of them. As you could probably guess, having a top-5 unit even makes the odds of a playoff berth even higher. 
 
A REASON TO BE SKEPTICAL?
Well, yes… I don’t doubt this defense can stay top-15 with *knocks on wood* no future major injuries. But I won’t undersell my Tua skepticism after being baby-sat by Chan Gailey all day versus the Rams. This offense might need to grow QUICKLY to keep winning. The only reason this team is 11th in the NFL in PPG is Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 12 TDs and the defense’s ability to cause turnovers. Can’t hide Tua all season long and think the defense will sweep up the crumbling pieces. We’ll see.

Please check out Carter on Twitter @CarterMelrose7 and welcome him to the PhinManiacs team!