What is the Doomsday Scenario for the Dolphins This Week?

By: Hussam Patel

Aaron Jones remains a Packer
 
If this happens the Dolphins could look to signing a veteran running back. While players like Chris Carson and James Connor are available, Miami should not pay for a running back in free agency that can’t turn this running game around. We saw it last year with Matt Breida and Jordan Howard; however, they were not the leading rushers for the Miami Dolphins.

I’ll break down the Aaron Jones situation like this....I am extremely confident he will be a Dolphin or remain a Packer. I do not think a team will give him $14 million a year or to any RB, but I do believe there is a very friendly deal for both parties ahead in Miami for him.

— Jason Sarney (@OrangeAquaman) March 12, 2021

Miami is currently connected to both Aaron Jones and Connor. When healthy, Connor is a great running back, but a fit in Miami is not ideal even if it is a $3-4 million a year deal. The Dolphins should not overpay for a free agent running back and should look to get a cheap reliable back through the NFL Draft.

According to pro football reference,
Dolphins receivers had the 3rd most drops and were 27th in YAC.

Dolphins running backs were dead last in yards after contact, and third lowest yards per carry.

They won 10 games

— Casey (@BaseyCrock) January 4, 2021

Last season Myles Gaskin proved he can be a productive running back, barring injury. The Dolphins offense will be more  explosive with the threat of a run game. It will help to set up the play action that defenses didn't bite on last year, and increase the usage of RPO’s- a strength of Tua’s. Aaron Jones is able to be the #1 running back with a combination of Myles Gaskin catching out of the backfield and using a committee that can be productive.

Signing Haason Reddick to replace Kyle Van Noy
 
Now for most fans, the release of Kyle Van Noy was a surprise and leaves a hole at the LB spot. Kyle Van Noy was a good player for Miami but not at the right price, and the emergence of Andrew Van Ginkel led to Van Noy’s release after a failed trade attempt. Miami needs a true "Mike" at the Linebacker spot if they look to become a consistent elite defense. Lavonte David would have been a perfect fit but was retained in Tampa last week.

Buccaneers, LB Lavonte David agree to two-year extension worth $25M. (via @RapSheet) pic.twitter.com/AA8X7Y1kc1

— NFL (@NFL) March 9, 2021

A signing of Reddick or Dupree can be troublesome. First off both are pass rush specialists and cannot cover tight end’s or running backs and essentially could be the same price as Kyle Van Noy. Miami already has several linebackers that can rush the passer and do not need to pay for sacks, they need a guy who can cover the field and be a run-stuffer. Elandon Roberts is no lock to come back and he’s coming off an injury. Kamu Grugier-Hill may leave and leave a hole in the special teams unit.

I know it was a rough week, Colts fans. Here's a video of Denico Autry blowing up the Jags O-Line though. Almost halfway through the coaches film (I'm a nerd, I know). As bad as they were against the run, D-Line was winning matchups and pressuring Minshew well in pass game. pic.twitter.com/68pxaYKJ25

— eli (@StruggleBusEli) September 18, 2020

A cheaper signing of Anthony Walker Jr. is a viable replacement on special teams and quite possibly Raekwon McMillan could come back to Miami on a cheaper deal to be the run-stuffer. This leaves a spot to draft a linebacker like Zaven Collins at pick #18 or Baron Browning at #36; both young, cheap prospects that can man the middle and do it all.

Not Restructuring Top Contracts
 
Per my colleague Jason Sarney five players taking up the most salary cap space include: Byron Jones, Xavien Howard, DeVante Parker, Ereck Flowers, and Shaq Lawson.

The Dolphins 5 Highest Paid Players Heading into 2021 and their cap figure

1- Byron Jones: 16M
2- Xavien Howard: 13.5M
3- DeVante Parker: 11.9M
4- Ereck Flowers: 10M
5- Shaq Lawson: 9.8M

I can't see these 5 contracts being exactly the same and/or all retained this way for 2021

— Jason Sarney (@OrangeAquaman) March 12, 2021

Now there are several ways to free up Cap space. Check out Jason’s Article here and here
 
With these proposed moves, Miami stands to gain a copious amount of money to go all in for Aaron Jones and another offensive lineman to amplify the run game and protect Tua Tagovailoa, and a possible play-making wide receiver. While Miami may not look to make a "splash," eschewed by Brian Flores in his press conference earlier this week, this extra money can be used to extend current Dolphins like Mike Gesicki and Jerome Baker who would be Free Agents in 2022. This money would also roll over to 2022 and the cap amount be greater than this year due to Covid-19.

Overpaying for a FA WR
 
The Dolphins wide receiver group needs an overhaul, not a clean sweep, but some systemic changes based on an offensive scheme. A scheme tailor made to get it’s personnel to be on one-on-one match-ups, separating from defenders and gaining Yards After the Catch. Some names linked to the Miami Dolphins include Kenny Golladay, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Curtis Samuel. These three wide receivers will command money as they are the Top WR’s on the market, along with Will Fuller V and Marvin Jones, Jr. moving down the list.

From NFL Now: JuJu Smith-Schuster does some social media-ing.... which led to our discussion of what his free agency will be like. pic.twitter.com/IrugiAyE35

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 11, 2021

Top WR’s will command top money. While I do not expect a bidding war in these times, you could speculate for the future if the NFL cap situation does not get better next year the Dolphins should not take these risks in paying a wide-out upwards of 15-20 million a year. Smith-Schuster is a great fit for the Dolphins and would be WR2 in this offense and does a lot of the dirty work and gets touchdowns in the red zone, but how much will he cost?
 
Now if the Dolphins want a veteran presence in the locker room and experience on the field, Golden Tate, Emmanuel Sanders and T.Y. Hilton can mentor this group. However, the Dolphins need a WR that can help Tua and have game changing plays- missing from the offense last year. While JuJu and Curtis Samuel are proven play-makers, they will command money.

#49ers WR Kendrick Bourne is another low-usage statistical darling, finishing 1st in the NFL in 1st downs/target (52.3% on 44 targets) for players with 40+ targets.

Bourne is a very good route runner from inside and split out, has good hands, and has some YAC ability.

(THREAD) pic.twitter.com/u1KzK4cdGQ

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) February 13, 2020

Kendrick Bourne can be that guy, he might be 26 and underused with the 49ers, he does almost the same things JuJu and Samuel do. He’s physical at the catch point, a polished route runner and gets touchdowns. He won’t command $10+ million a year and can be signed on a short term team friendly deal around $6-8 million a year.

Signing a New England DT

Per Barry Jackson’s article the Dolphins are interested in bringing in former Patriots Adam Butler and Lawrence Guy at defensive tackle.

From PM: Dolphins poised to pursue more Patriots: https://t.co/n2pLS9IKiq

— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) March 12, 2021

Both Butler and Guy are scheme fits in Miami's defense and have had decent production. Butler is versatile and has produced with injury concerns. Guy had a standalone season with Flores three years ago, and was crucial in the Super Bowl victory against the LA Rams. The issue is not the fit, it is about the cap money and salary. Guy is old and the Dolphins defense does not have a player over 30. Pro Football Focus itself has said that Guy could command around $7 million per year. Defensive tackle is not a need right now.

□Sound On□

Yes, there were a couple of blown coverages by the #Saints, but you couldn't really tell because of how well the DL played.

Here, looks like NOLA drops into Cover 6 with the blitz but P.J. Williams doesn't carry MOF. No worries, Malcolm Brown/Onyemata win up front pic.twitter.com/wOQvJiBlmd

— Deuce Windham (@RevDeuceWindham) November 10, 2020

Malcolm Brown has been a name that is being buzzed around the Dolphins, I agree he’s a great run-stuffer and a scheme fit for this Defense; he constantly eats up blocks a lot, and would not break the bank. I like Malcolm Brown as a player, he’s young and productive and would not be a $6-7 million a year signing.

Davon Godchaux does this a couple of times every week. pic.twitter.com/ovczz29Iu1

— Travis Wingfield (@WingfieldNFL) November 17, 2019

Davon Godchaux is a free agent, and not expected to sign back. I would like to have Godchaux back. He understands the Dolphins defense already with a heartbreaking injury. It led the way for a rotation of Wilkins, Sieler, Benito Jones and the emergence of Raekwon Davis. Godchaux will bring great depth in the DT room, great play-making too. Offering him a team friendly deal-around $3 million a year- would bolster this defense and continue their dominance.